The Implications of the Climate Crisis in the Middle East
Abstract
The climate crisis has been emerging as one of the most significant forces shaping the Middle East, a region increasingly recognized as a climate hotspot that is warming at twice the global average rate. As the crisis deepens as manifested very clearly by the severe drought in the region this year (the winter of 2024-2025), its influence on the region becomes more pronounced. This impact manifests through a variety of phenomena, including sea level rise, an increase in extreme weather events such as sandstorms, floods, and wildfires, a reduction in annual precipitation, and rising temperatures. These developments have far-reaching implications for agriculture, economic stability, public health, tourism, and natural ecosystems. They also exacerbate internal tensions and inter-state conflict potential, as exemplified by the Syrian civil war, in which prolonged drought played a contributing role. The response and preparedness of Middle Eastern countries can be categorized into three groups: (1) Countries with resources and comprehensive climate strategies, such as the Gulf states, Morocco and Israel, which recognize the severity of the challenge and have begun implementing adaptation strategies; (2) Countries with limited resources and partial preparedness, such as Egypt and Jordan; Fragile or failed states, such as Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan and Libya, which currently lack any significant climate preparedness. Strengthening regional climate resilience and developing regional cooperation mechanisms are essential. Given the transboundary nature of climate challenges, it is imperative to foster regional preparedness through cooperative efforts both within the region and with international partners. Israel has promoted and actively participated in several such initiatives.
References
Anchal, V. (2021) The Middle East is Becoming Literally Uninhabitable. Foreign Policy.
Behar, G., Koren, H. (2020) Security in the Shadow of Climate Change in the Sahel. The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University (in Hebrew)
Clawson, P. (2022) Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Ecopeace Middle East Website. Water Energy Nexus
El Safty, S., Saafan, F. (2022) Insight: Egypt’s Nile Delta Farmland Salts Up as Temperatures, and Seas, Rise. Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/egypts-nile-delta-farmland-salts-up-temperatures-seas-rise-2022-11-17/
EMEE-CCI Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Climate Change Initiative: Bringing the Region Together to Tackle Climate Change, Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Climate Change Initiative Website
Environmental diplomacy, Arava Institute Website.
Grid-Arendal (2006). Nile Delta: Potential impact of sea level rise.
https://www.grida.no/resources/6366
Malek, C., (2021) Locust swarms pose new threat to Middle East and Africa’s food security. Arab News. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1804536/middle-east
Malik, A. , Stenchikov, G. , Mostamandi, S. , Parajuli, S. , Lelieveld, J. , Zittis, G., Sheraz, A., M. , Atique, L. , Usman, M/ (2024) Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa. JGR Atmospheres, 1-31. 10.1029/2024JD041625
Ranj, A. (2022) Climate Change may Devastate the Middle East. Here’s How Governments Should Tackle it. Brookings.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/climate-change-may-devastate-the-middle-east-heres-how-governments-should-tackle-it/
Saudi Press Agency (2024) Saudi Green Initiative Drives Sustainable Development and Climate Action. https://spa.gov.sa/en/N2218015
Taff-Sacker, Y. (2020) Regional Cooperation in the Field of Environment: Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority." Mitvim (The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy). 1-9. (In Hebrew)
The Guardian (2022). Ninth Sandstorm in Less than Two Months Shuts Down Much of Iraq. https://x.com/guardian/status/1528937460792795137
The MA'ARAG Program, The National Natural Status Assessment Plan (2022), Natural Status Report-2022, Chapter C, Fires in Natural and Forested Areas in Israel. (In Hebrew)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2021) Regional Climate Weeks to Drive Forward Climate Action in 2021 and 2022
World Bank (2023) Water Scarcity in MENA Requires Bold Actions. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/04/27/water-scarcity-in-mena-requires-bold-actions-says-world-bank-report
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/the-middle-east-is-becoming-literally-uninhabitable/
World Health Organization (2022) Iran, Health and Climate Change Country Profile 2022. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-HEP-ECH-CCH-22.01.01
Zittis, G.M., Almazroui, P., Alpert, P., Ciais, W., Cramer, Y., Dahdal, M., Fnais, D. ,Francis, P., Hadjinicolaou, F., Howari, A., Jrrar, D. G., Kaskaoutis, M., Kulmala, G., Lazoglou, N., Mihalopoulos, X., Lin, Y., Rudich, J., Sciare, sStechnikov, E., Xoplaki, J., Lelieveld. (2022) Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Reviews of Geophysics,60, Issue 3., 1-48
- The contributor(s) (authors) warrant that the entire work is original and unpublished; it is submitted only to this Journal and all text, data, figures/tables or other illustrations included in this work are completely original and unpublished, and these have not been previously published or submitted elsewhere in any form or media whatsoever.
- The contributor(s) warrant that the work contains no unlawful or libelous statements and opinions and liable materials of any kind whatsoever, does not infringe on any copyrights, intellectual property rights, personal rights or rights of any kind of others, nor contains any plagiarized, fraudulent, improperly attributed materials, instructions, procedures, information or ideas that might cause any harm, damage, injury, losses or costs of any kind to person or property.
- The contributor(s) retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- The contributor(s) are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- The contributor(s) are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
- Geography Research Forum may disseminate the content of the publications and publications’ Meta data in text, image, or other print and electronic formats to providers of research databases (e.g. EBSCO, GeoBase, JSTOR) to facilitate publications' exposure.